Gross energy demand and peak demand are forecasted to grow, respectively, from 1,312 GWh in 2020 to 2,713 GWh in 2037. Installed capacity in Djibouti is expected to grow from c.253 MW in 2020 to c.1,112 MW in 2037.
The amount of electricity which can be imported from Ethiopia is expected to increase to ~181 MW in 2020 and 314 MW by 2037. Imported electricity price is roughly US$22¢/kWh.
The introduction of the Ghoubet wind farm in the system will allow EDD to improve both the reliability and lower average costs of fuel cost in the system.
| Site | Expected Installed Capacity (MW) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2037 | |
| Boulaos | 73 | 57 | 57 | 46 |
| Tadjourah | 8 | 8 | 12 | 12 |
| Marabout | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Damerjog | 50 | 366 | 466 | 482 |
| Nagad | – | – | – | 150 |
| Ghoubet | 60 | 160 | 260 | 360 |
| Ali Sabieh | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Total | 253 | 653 | 857 | 1,112 |
The supply–demand analysis suggests that from 2025 onwards, if the foreseen capacities are implemented, the system will witness a strict surplus leading to lack of flexibility in the system.
The analysis supports the fact that the base load should first be covered by supply from RES, while intermittency should be compensated with semi-peak or peak load units using thermal sources, essentially supporting the case for a cautious (at best) approach to developing the large thermal projects.
